China Capital market Forcast

  • Wednesday, January 24, 2024

  • Keywords:currency, capital policy
[Fellow]Daily market update: Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that capital market stability will be given a more prominent position; the Bank of Japan stayed on hold and lowered its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2024

Facom Breaking News: Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission: Put capital market stability in a more prominent position and increase the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market. Yi Huiman, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said on Tuesday that we will make every effort to maintain the stable operation of the capital market, put the stable operation of the capital market in a more prominent position, and strive to stabilize the market and confidence; increase the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and promote the dynamic balance of investment and financing. Continuously enhance the inherent stability of the stock market. (Full Story)

Zhang Wangjun, director of the Market Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that policy tools will be enriched to deal with market fluctuations, risk hedging will be done in a timely manner, and the risk bottom line will be maintained; the action plan for the reform of the investment side of the capital market will be implemented as soon as possible, and efforts will be made to expand the counter-cyclical layout of industry institutions .


Reuters poll: Economists believe that the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut interest rates in June , and expectations are not as dovish as the market. Most economists polled by Reuters said the U.S. Federal Reserve would wait until the second quarter to cut interest rates, with a rate cut in June more likely than in May , and their expectations for cumulative rate cuts this year are lower than the market currently expectations. All 123 economists polled by Reuters from January 16 to 23 predicted that the Federal Open Market Committee would keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% on January 31 , with 86 respondents It is believed that interest rate cuts will begin next quarter.


The Eurozone consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell to minus 16.1 in January , which was worse than market expectations. The European Commission announced that the Eurozone consumer confidence index fell 1.0 points in January from December to minus 16.1 . Economists polled by Reuters had expected the January reading to rise to minus 14.3 .


The Bank of Japan remains on hold and lowers its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2024 ; Bank of Japan Governor: The price outlook remains highly uncertain, and even if negative interest rates end, the loose environment will continue . The Bank of Japan warned that it would not hesitate to increase easing efforts if necessary, but pointed out that inflation is expected to gradually accelerate to reach the Bank of Japan's target by the end of the quarterly report forecast period. The year-on- year CPI increase in fiscal 2024 may exceed 2% , and medium- and long-term inflation is expected to Moderate rise. Ueda Kazuo said that the Bank of Japan’s certainty of achieving its 2% sustained inflation target is gradually increasing. If the price target is within sight, it will consider whether negative interest rates should be maintained, but it is still difficult to say how far it is from exiting the negative interest rate policy.


BYD's annual sales in the Chinese market surpassed Volkswagen's, which has held the top spot for 15 consecutive years. BYD's global sales will exceed 3 million vehicles in 2023 , and it is expected to enter the top ten global car sales lists for the first time. Its annual sales in the Chinese market have surpassed Volkswagen. In the fourth quarter of last year, BYD's pure electric vehicle sales surpassed Tesla's and became the world's top-selling electric vehicle company.

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