【Ferro-alloys.com】: Guinea exported 99.8 million tonnes of bauxite in the first half of 2025, a sharp 36 per cent rise from 73.4 million tonnes in the same period of 2024. That figure is almost equal to the country’s entire output in 2022. The rise is a result of strong run, with exports up 19.6 per cent in 2023 to 127 million tonnes, followed by another 14 per cent increase in 2024 to 145 million tonnes.

What makes the latest surge stand out is the backdrop, Guinea is in the middle of political turbulence, a tightening grip on mining rights by the junta, and rising unease among investors.

Export boom and China’s role

The export boom has several drivers, but China is at the center. Roughly 60 per cent of Guinea’s ore goes to Chinese buyers, and Beijing’s aluminium production was up about 4 per cent in the first five months of 2025, according to the sources. This is due to rebound in construction and manufacturing.

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In terms of Infrastructure, export facilities have increased from five to nine, including Kamsar, Boké, Dapilon, and Katougouma. In the first quarter alone, 312 vessels sailed from Guinean ports, compared with 225 a year earlier — a 39 per cent jump in traffic.

Meanwhile, operators showed flexibility. Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) was sidelined, but others stepped in. Société Minière de Boké (SMB), backed by Chinese interests, raised output, while Alliance Guinéenne de Bauxite, d’Alumine et d’Aluminium(AGB2A/SDM) improved efficiency, keeping shipments steady.

Politics and market ripples

Politics remain the biggest wild card. In August 2025, the government stripped Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) of its concession after GAC failed to commit to building a local alumina refinery. GAC had already stopped exports in late 2024, leaving about 2 million tonnes of ore piled up at Kamsar port. Its license was handed to the new state-owned Nimba Mining Company (NMC).

Officials say the change will channel more revenues into state coffers and push Guinea toward value-added industry. Investors, however, see it as another sign of resource nationalism and regulatory unpredictability.

Bauxite prices climbed from about USD 70 to over USD 75 per tonne in early 2025. Traders warn that the rainy season could make matters worse by disrupting transport and slowing port activity.

China’s grip amid refining problem

Guinea’s ore reserves are enormous — 7.4 billion tonnes, nearly a third of the world’s total — but almost all of it is exported raw. The reason is simple: the country hardly has any refining capacity. The only significant alumina plant is Rusal’s Friguia refinery, which produces around 600,000 tonnes a year, a fraction of the ~200 million tonnes of ore mined annually.

That gap has left Guinea dependent on outside buyers, mainly China. Companies such as SMB and CHALCO dominate shipments, feeding China’s aluminum industry.

However, efforts are underway to build refining capacity within Guinea and reduce this dependence on raw ore exports. For example, China’s State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) is constructing a large alumina refinery, expected to come online by 2027 with a capacity of around 1.2 million tonnes annually. Local companies have also proposed refinery projects.

Outlook

Guinea’s exports are booming, but the sector remains fragile. Political clampdowns, nationalisation, and limited refining weigh heavily. The key challenge is adding value at home — a goal that hinges on stability, investment, and new projects. Until then, Guinea will stay a dominant yet vulnerable link in the global aluminium chain.

• [Editor:Alakay]